Gary Morgan on underemployment
Gary Morgan research says:
- 12% of Australians are ‘underemployed’ or unemployed
- 1.3 million Australians want work or more work
During the September 2008 Quarter the Roy Morgan ‘underemployed’* estimate was 735,000 (6.7%) Australian workers, 16,000 higher than the corresponding September 2007 Quarter result.
The Roy Morgan September 2008 Quarter unemployment estimate of 584,000 (5.3%) means there are 1,319,000 (12.0%) Australians either unemployed or ‘underemployed.’*
JustAct notes: whether we agree or disagree with the overall analysis (we at JustAct would differ on ‘WorkChoices’) by Morgan research, the highlighting of this issue is to be applauded.
Gary Morgan says:
“The Reserve Bank has taken the correct action today with a 1% cut in official interest rates to 6.0% – the first time it has cut by 1.0% since May 1992. However interest rates should never have been put up in November 2007 nor twice in 2008.
“The immediate bounce in both the share-market and the value of the Australian dollar from the overnight lows shows the wisdom of the RBA’s decision.
“We said just before the Federal Election in November 2007 (”Reserve Bank turns up the heat on Australian workers.”) “…the RBA… needs to look across the Pacific Ocean to the turbulent state of the US credit market and US stock market to find ample reason for the RBA to tread cautiously on raising Australian interest rates at the present time.” – unfortunately the RBA took little notice of this advice!
“As Roy Morgan’s real unemployment and ‘underemployment’* estimates show for July – September 2008 more than 1.3 million Australians are either unemployed or ‘underemployed’* looking for more work.
“The Roy Morgan ‘underemployed’* statistics show Australia has a ‘hidden resource’ – a vast ‘army of workers’ under-utilised and overlooked.
“In the US, where the news is all about the ‘Financial crisis’ facing the country, yesterday CNN pointed out their concern regarding the number of ‘underemployed’* in the US.
“In Australia, this issue is well known among those who follow real measures of unemployment and the economy, and articulated clearly in Michele Levine’s paper ‘The Fantasy of Full Employment’ presented at the National Press Club, ACT on March 14, 2008. Yet Australia’s media ignores the ‘underemployment’* issue – is Australia’s media’ ignorant’ or just ‘biased’? (probably both)
“The Reserve Bank has finally realised the extent of the problems facing the Australian economy, and those looking for work and looking for more work.
“The world ‘Financial crisis’ means both the Government and the Reserve Bank need to provide increased stimulus to the economy to prevent an Australian recession and to provide employment opportunities for the more than 12% of the Australian workforce that want work or more work – a very simple point.
“Unless there is continued quick and decisive action the issue today is: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia? A Woman and it will be sooner than you think!”
Australian Unemployment lower in September Quarter – down 0.6% to 5.3%
Full-time employees increase by 336,000 to 7.2 million
During the September 2008 Quarter the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate dropped substantially to 584,000 (5.3%), down 48,000 (0.6%) from the June Quarter, and down 30,000 (0.5%) from the September 2007 Quarter result of 5.8%.
The number of employed Australians increased by 243,000 to 10,371,000 since the June 2008 Quarter, and by 314,000 since the September 2007 Quarter.
However in the September Quarter there were 1,319,000 (12.0%) Australians in the workforce who were either unemployed (584,000) or ‘underemployed’* (735,000) – a far more important figure to consider than just the unemployment rate.
Gary Morgan says:
“Despite the global economic turbulence, the effect of “Work Choices” has helped reduce Australia’s unemployment rate as better than expected economic figures have led to increased hiring by business.
“However, the large number of ‘underemployed’* Australians remains the significant issue for the economy with 1,319,000 (12.0%) of Australians in the workforce either unemployed or ‘underemployed.’
“The Global Financial Crisis has led to a tightening of lending standards by the banks which will lead to less loans for business and consumers and less jobs for those seeking work, or seeking more work.
*The ‘underemployed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work.
(Unfortunately the ABS does not measure this figure in their monthly unemployment survey.)
